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THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTION by  Nate Silver - Paperback - 2012 - from Dromanabooks (SKU: 35939)

THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTION

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THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTION

by Silver, Nate

  • Used
  • paperback
Condition
Very Good; Yellowed paper
ISBN 10
1846147735
ISBN 13
9781846147739
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Newstead. Victoria, Victoria
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About This Item

Melbourne: Allen Lane. Very Good; Yellowed paper. 2012. Paperback. 1846147735 . Index. "In this book, the author explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. He reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives." 750gms weight; 8vo 8" - 9" tall; 536 pages .

Synopsis

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com , where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

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Details

Bookseller
Dromanabooks AU (AU)
Bookseller's Inventory #
35939
Title
THE SIGNAL AND THE NOISE: THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTION
Author
Silver, Nate
Format/binding
Paperback
Book condition
Used - Very Good; Yellowed paper
Quantity-available
1
Binding
Paperback
ISBN 10
1846147735
ISBN 13
9781846147739
Publisher
Allen Lane
Place of Publication
Melbourne
Date Published
2012
Keywords
1846147735, Forecasting, Predictions, Theory Of Knowledge
Bookseller catalogs
Psychology;

Terms of Sale

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